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2019 AFC tiebreakers entering Week 15 (plus BAL-NYJ)

by Jeremy Snyder - 0

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games.
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored. If BUF and KC both finish 10-6, KC wins the AFC West but BUF does not win the AFC East.
  4. Division ties are broken first. If TEN, IND, and PIT all finish 9-7, break the AFC South tie between TEN and IND first, then break the tie between the TEN-IND winner and PIT.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.

BAL has clinched the AFC North. KC has clinched the AFC West. CIN, MIA, JAX, NYJ, LAC have been eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | South | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way • 3-way • 4-way

AFC East

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BUF 11-5 NE beats BUF NE head-to-head
NE-BUF
  • BUF beats NE, NYJ
  • NE beats MIA
 NE common opponents
NE-BUF 11-5
  • BUF beats NE; loses to NYJ
  • NE beats MIA
 NE division record
NE-BUF 11-5
  • BUF beats NE, NYJ
  • NE loses to MIA
 BUF division record
NE-BUF
  • BUF beats NE; loses to NYJ
  • NE loses to MIA
 NE common opponents

AFC North

If these teams tie at tie goes to based on
PIT-CLE CLE division record

AFC South

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
HOU-TEN HOU division record
HOU-IND 9-7
  • HOU splits with TEN
 IND common opponents
HOU-IND
  • HOU swept by TEN
  • IND beats JAX
 IND division record
HOU-IND 8-8
  • HOU swept by TEN
  • IND loses to JAX
 IND common opponents
TEN-IND IND division record
HOU-TEN-IND 9-7 IND
  1. TEN eliminated on division record
  2. common opponents

AFC West

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
KC-OAK 9-7 KC head-to-head
OAK-DEN 8-8 DEN division record
OAK-LAC 8-8 OAK beats DEN OAK division record
OAK-LAC 8-8 OAK loses to DEN OAK conference record
LAC-DEN 8-8 DEN head-to-head
OAK-DEN-LAC 8-8 DEN head-to-head

AFC interdivisional ties

2-way

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BAL 12-4 BAL head-to-head
NE-PIT NE head-to-head
NE-HOU HOU head-to-head
NE-TEN TEN conference record
NE-KC KC head-to-head
BUF-BAL 12-4 BAL head-to-head
BUF-PIT 10-6 BUF beats PIT BUF head-to-head
BUF-PIT PIT beats BUF PIT head-to-head
BUF-CLE 9-7 CLE head-to-head
BUF-HOU HOU conference record
BUF-TEN BUF head-to-head
BUF-IND 9-7 BUF common opponents
BUF-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI, DEN KC common opponents
BUF-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI; loses to DEN ? strength of victory
BUF-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC conference record
BUF-OAK 9-7 OAK conference record
BAL-KC 12-4 KC head-to-head
PIT-HOU
  • PIT beats BAL
  • HOU beats TB
 ? strength of victory
PIT-HOU
  • PIT loses to BAL
  • HOU beats TB
 HOU common opponents
PIT-HOU HOU loses to TB HOU conference record
PIT-TEN TEN beats NO PIT conference record
PIT-TEN 9-7
  • PIT beats BUF
  • TEN loses to NO
 PIT common opponents
PIT-TEN
  • PIT loses to BUF
  • TEN loses to NO
 ? strength of victory
PIT-TEN PIT loses to ARI PIT conference record
PIT-IND PIT head-to-head
PIT-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT conference record
PIT-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI; beats LAC KC common opponents
PIT-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI, LAC ? strength of victory
PIT-OAK 9-7 PIT beats NYJ PIT common opponents
PIT-OAK 9-7 PIT loses to NYJ ? strength of victory
CLE-HOU 9-7 HOU beats TB CLE conference record
CLE-HOU 9-7
  • CLE beats ARI
  • HOU loses to TB; splits with TEN
 ? strength of victory
CLE-HOU 8-8
  • CLE beats ARI, BAL
  • HOU loses to TB; swept by TEN
 CLE common opponents
CLE-HOU 8-8
  • CLE beats ARI; loses to BAL
  • HOU loses to TB; swept by TEN
 ? strength of victory
CLE-HOU 8-8 CLE loses to ARI CLE conference record
CLE-TEN TEN head-to-head
CLE-IND CLE conference record
CLE-OAK 9-7 CLE conference record
HOU-KC HOU head-to-head
HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU head-to-head
TEN-KC TEN head-to-head
TEN-OAK 9-7 TEN head-to-head
IND-KC 9-7 IND head-to-head
IND-OAK 9-7 OAK head-to-head

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BAL-KC 12-4 KC head-to-head
NE-PIT-HOU PIT beats BAL PIT or HOU
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
NE-PIT-HOU 10-6 PIT loses to BAL HOU
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
NE-PIT-TEN PIT conference record
NE-PIT-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT conference record
NE-PIT-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
NE-HOU-KC HOU
  1. NE eliminated on head-to-head
  2. head-to-head
NE-TEN-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI TEN
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
NE-TEN-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC conference record
BUF-BAL-KC 12-4 KC
  1. BAL eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-HOU
  • PIT beats BAL
  • HOU beats TB
 PIT or HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-HOU
  • PIT loses to BAL
  • HOU beats TB
 HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-HOU HOU loses to TB HOU conference record
BUF-PIT-TEN TEN beats NO PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-TEN 9-7 TEN loses to NO PIT
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-IND 9-7 PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-KC KC beats CHI PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-OAK 9-7 PIT beats NYJ PIT
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-OAK 9-7 PIT loses to NYJ PIT or OAK
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-CLE-HOU 9-7 HOU beats TB CLE conference record
BUF-CLE-HOU 9-7 HOU loses to TB CLE or HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-CLE-TEN 9-7 CLE conference record
BUF-CLE-IND 9-7 CLE conference record
BUF-CLE-OAK 9-7 CLE conference record
BUF-HOU-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI HOU conference record
BUF-HOU-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU beats TB HOU
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU loses to TB HOU conference record
BUF-TEN-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI ? strength of victory
BUF-TEN-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC conference record
BUF-TEN-OAK 9-7 TEN beats NO OAK conference record
BUF-TEN-OAK 9-7 TEN loses to NO TEN
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
BUF-IND-OAK 9-7 OAK conference record
PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT or HOU
  1. KC eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC common opponents
PIT-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU beats TB ? strength of victory
PIT-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU loses to TB HOU conference record
PIT-HOU-DEN 8-8 DEN
  1. PIT eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
PIT-HOU-LAC 8-8 HOU
  1. LAC eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
PIT-TEN-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT conference record
PIT-TEN-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
PIT-TEN-OAK 9-7
  • PIT beats NYJ
  • TEN beats NO
 PIT
  1. TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
PIT-TEN-OAK 9-7
  • PIT loses to NYJ
  • TEN beats NO
 PIT or OAK
  1. TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
PIT-TEN-OAK TEN loses to NO ? strength of victory
PIT-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN conference record
PIT-TEN-LAC 8-8 PIT or TEN
  1. LAC eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
PIT-IND-OAK 9-7 PIT beats NYJ PIT
  1. IND eliminated on head-to-head
  2. common opponents
PIT-IND-OAK 9-7
  • PIT loses to NYJ
  • OAK beats LAC
 PIT or OAK
  1. IND eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
PIT-IND-OAK 8-8 OAK loses to LAC PIT
  1. IND eliminated on head-to-head
  2. common opponents
PIT-IND-DEN 8-8 DEN conference record
PIT-IND-LAC 8-8 PIT head-to-head
CLE-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU beats TB CLE conference record
CLE-HOU-OAK 9-7
  • CLE beats ARI
  • HOU loses to TB; splits with TEN
 CLE or HOU
  1. OAK eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
CLE-HOU-OAK 8-8
  • CLE beats ARI, BAL
  • HOU loses to TB; swept by TEN
 CLE
  1. OAK eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
CLE-HOU-OAK 8-8 CLE beats ARI; loses to BAL CLE or HOU
  1. OAK eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
CLE-HOU-OAK 8-8 CLE loses to ARI CLE conference record
CLE-HOU-DEN 8-8 DEN head-to-head
CLE-HOU-LAC 8-8 CLE beats ARI, BAL CLE
  1. LAC eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
CLE-HOU-LAC 8-8 CLE beats ARI; loses to BAL CLE or HOU
  1. LAC eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
CLE-HOU-LAC 8-8 CLE loses to ARI CLE conference record
CLE-TEN-OAK TEN head-to-head
CLE-TEN-DEN 8-8 DEN head-to-head
CLE-TEN-LAC 8-8 TEN head-to-head
CLE-IND-OAK CLE conference record
CLE-IND-DEN 8-8 CLE beats ARI DEN
  1. IND eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
CLE-IND-DEN 8-8 CLE loses to ARI CLE conference record
CLE-IND-LAC 8-8 CLE conference record

4-way ties

 

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT or HOU
  1. NE & KC eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
NE-PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
NE-PIT-TEN-KC 11-5 PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT or HOU
  1. BUF & KC eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-HOU-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU beats TB PIT, HOU, or OAK
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU loses to TB HOU conference record
BUF-PIT-TEN-KC 11-5 KC beats CHI PIT conference record
BUF-PIT-TEN-KC 11-5 KC loses to CHI KC
  1. BUF & TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-TEN-OAK 9-7
  • PIT beats NYJ
  • TEN beats NO
 PIT
  1. BUF & TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-TEN-OAK 9-7
  • PIT loses to NYJ
  • TEN beats NO
 PIT or OAK
  1. BUF & TEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-TEN-OAK 9-7
  • PIT beats ARI
  • TEN loses to NO
 PIT, TEN, or OAK
  1. BUF eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-PIT-IND-OAK 9-7 PIT beats NYJ PIT
  1. BUF & IND eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
BUF-PIT-IND-OAK 9-7 PIT loses to NYJ PIT or OAK
  1. BUF & IND eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-CLE-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU beats TB CLE conference record
BUF-CLE-HOU-OAK 9-7 HOU loses to TB CLE or HOU
  1. BUF & OAK eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BUF-CLE-TEN-OAK 9-7 CLE conference record
BUF-CLE-IND-OAK 9-7 CLE conference record

 

Jeremy Snyder

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