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AFC tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 15 (plus KC-LAC, NYJ-HOU, DEN-CLE)

by Jeremy Snyder - 0

The following charts seek to answer the following question: If these two (or more) teams finish with the same record, who wins the tiebreaker?

Notes and assumptions:

  1. No possibility of future tie games (PIT and CLE are shown only for tiebreakers against each other).
  2. Tiebreaker winners are as they would be if the teams were tied at the end of the season, NOT as if the season ended right now.
  3. Tiebreakers that don’t affect playoff berths or seeding are ignored.
  4. Division ties are broken first.
  5. If three or more teams are tied, apply that tiebreaker, not the two-team tiebreaker.
  6. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage (essentially, the number of wins) of the teams a team has beaten. It has nothing to do with point totals.

No AFC team has yet clinched a playoff seed. KC and LAC have clinched playoff berths. OAK, NYJ, BUF, and JAX are mathematically eliminated.

The complete tiebreaker rules are here.

Jump to East | North | South | West | Interdivisional ties 2-way • 3-way • 4-way

AFC East

If these teams tie tie goes to based on
NE-MIA MIA division record

AFC North

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
PIT-CLE PIT head-to-head
BAL-CIN 8-8 BAL beats CLE BAL conference record
BAL-CIN 8-8 BAL loses to CLE CIN division record

AFC South

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
HOU-IND 10-6 IND division record
HOU-TEN 10-6 TEN division record
IND-TEN IND beats TEN IND head-to-head
IND-TEN TEN beats IND TEN division record

AFC West

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
KC-LAC KC beats OAK KC division record
KC-LAC 12-4
  • LAC beats DEN
  • KC loses to OAK
 KC common opponents
KC-LAC LAC loses to DEN KC division record

Interdivisional ties

2-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BAL BAL conference record
NE-HOU NE head-to-head
NE-IND NE head-to-head
NE-TEN TEN head-to-head
NE-KC NE head-to-head
NE-LAC 12-4 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL
  • MIA beats MIN, BUF
  • BAL beats TB
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL
  • MIA beats MIN; loses to BUF
  • BAL beats TB
 BAL common opponents
MIA-BAL
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL conference record
MIA-BAL
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 MIA conference record
MIA-BAL
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL common opponents
MIA-CIN 8-8 CIN head-to-head
MIA-HOU 10-6 HOU head-to-head
MIA-IND IND head-to-head
MIA-TEN MIA head-to-head
MIA-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN ? strength of victory
MIA-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA conference record
BAL-HOU 10-6 ? strength of victory
BAL-IND IND beats DAL, NYG BAL conference record
BAL-IND 9-7
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats exactly 1 of DAL, NYG
 ? strength of victory
BAL-IND 9-7
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND beats either DAL or NYG
 BAL conference record
BAL-IND 8-8
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 IND conference record
BAL-IND 8-8
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 ? strength of victory
BAL-TEN BAL head-to-head
BAL-DEN 8-8 BAL head-to-head
CIN-IND 8-8 CIN head-to-head
CIN-TEN 8-8 CIN common opponents
CIN-DEN 8-8 DEN head-to-head
HOU-KC 12-4 KC beats SEA ? strength of victory
HOU-KC
  • HOU beats PHI
  • KC loses to SEA
 KC conference record
HOU-KC 11-5 HOU loses to PHI ? strength of victory
HOU-LAC 12-4 LAC beats DEN ? strength of victory
HOU-LAC 12-4 LAC loses to DEN HOU common opponents
IND-DEN 8-8 IND conference record
TEN-DEN 8-8 ? strength of victory

3-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
NE-BAL-HOU 10-6 BAL or HOU
  1. NE eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
NE-BAL-TEN BAL conference record
NE-HOU-KC NE head-to-head
NE-HOU-LAC 12-4 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-HOU 10-6 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND
  • MIA beats MIN, BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats DAL, NYG
 MIA or BAL
  1. IND eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA beats MIN; loses to BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats DAL, NYG
 BAL
  1. IND eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA beats MIN, BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats exactly 1 of DAL, NYG; beats TEN
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA beats MIN; loses to BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats exactly 1 of DAL, NYG; beats TEN
 BAL or IND
  1. MIA eliminated on common opponents
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 IND conference record
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND beats either DAL or NYG
 BAL conference record
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 BAL or IND
  1. MIA eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND beats either DAL or NYG
 MIA conference record
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 MIA or IND
  1. BAL eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL beats TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 IND
  1. BAL eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-BAL-IND 9-7
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND beats either DAL or NYG
 MIA or BAL
  1. IND eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
  • IND loses to DAL, NYG
 BAL or TEN
  1. MIA eliminated on common opponents
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN
  • MIA beats MIN, BUF
  • BAL beats TB
 MIA or BAL
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN
  • MIA beats MIN; loses to BUF
  • BAL beats TB
 BAL
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. common opponents
MIA-BAL-TEN
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
MIA-BAL-TEN
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 MIA
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. conference record
MIA-BAL-TEN
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 MIA or BAL
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL
  1. TEN eliminated on head-to-head
  2. common opponents
MIA-BAL-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL conference record
MIA-BAL-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 MIA conference record
MIA-BAL-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 MIA or BAL
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-CIN-IND 8-8 CIN head-to-head
MIA-CIN-TEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN ? strength of victory
MIA-CIN-TEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA conference record
MIA-CIN-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN ? strength of victory
MIA-CIN-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA conference record
MIA-IND-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN IND conference record
MIA-IND-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-TEN-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN ? strength of victory
MIA-TEN-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA conference record
BAL-IND-DEN 8-8 BAL beats TB IND conference record
BAL-IND-DEN 8-8 BAL loses to TB BAL or IND
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8 BAL head-to-head
CIN-IND-DEN 8-8 IND conference record
CIN-TEN-DEN 8-8 ? strength of victory

4-way ties

If these teams tie at with these things happening tie goes to based on
MIA-BAL-IND-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 IND conference record
MIA-BAL-IND-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL or IND
  1. MIA & DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 IND
  1. BAL & DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
MIA-BAL-IND-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 MIA, BAL, or IND
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-IND-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL or TEN
  1. DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. MIA eliminated on common opponents
  3. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 ? strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8
  • MIA beats MIN
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL conference record
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN
  • BAL beats TB
 MIA conference record
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN; beats BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 MIA or BAL
  1. TEN & DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. strength of victory
MIA-BAL-TEN-DEN 8-8
  • MIA loses to MIN, BUF
  • BAL loses to TB
 BAL
  1. TEN & DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. common opponents
MIA-CIN-IND-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN IND conference record
MIA-CIN-IND-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN IND
  1. CIN & DEN eliminated on conference record
  2. head-to-head
MIA-CIN-TEN-DEN 8-8 MIA beats MIN ? strength of victory
MIA-CIN-TEN-DEN 8-8 MIA loses to MIN MIA conference record

 

Jeremy Snyder

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