The following tables provide a fuller comparison of projections for the 2005 NFL season. Unlike the tables in this earlier post, these look at the actual and projected statistics, not the pre-ranks.
There are 5 tables:
1. An overview table, comparing the aggregrated projections of KUBIAK and the NFL Record and Fact Book for players at a given position to the actual results. This table contains any player at that position ranked by either system, plus all players at that position who passed once, rushed for a yard, or received a pass in 2005. This includes unprojectable players like Samkon Gado, who wasn’t even on the Packers’ roster until October 18.
2. An overview table, comparing the aggregrated projections of KUBIAK and the NFL Record and Fact Book for players at that position to the actual results. This table only contains players at that positio ranked by both systems.
3. A table detailing the actual statistics for players at that position in 2005.
4. A table detailing KUBIAK’s projected statistics for players at that position in 2005.
5. A table detailing the NFL Record & Fact Book’s projected statistics for players at that position in 2005.
A guide to the table categories:
Actual points: the number of points the player would have scored in 2005 under a simplified Yahoo system, crediting 6 points per passing, rushing, or receiving touchdown, 1 point for every 20 rushing yards, and 1 point for every 20 receiving yards.
Actual rank: the rank of the player at his position in 2005 under a simplified Yahoo system, using only typical position statistics (e.g., LaDanian Tomlinson’s passing statistics are not included).
KUBIAK points: the projected points the player would have in 2005, using the projections from a KUBIAK updated spreadsheet from late in the 2005 preseason. KUBIAK is the projection system of Football Outsiders, the authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2005 and 2006. However, these numbers are updated from those found in the 2005 book. The KUBIAK projections are constantly updated up until the beginning of the season to adjust for suspensions, injuries, and changes to the depth chart, and those updates are available for a one-time fee.
The KUBIAK spreadsheet I have projected 88 RB for the 2005 season. All but 3 had at least 1 carry or reception.
KUBIAK Rank: the projected ranking of the player at his position in 2005 under the simplified Yahoo system, using the KUBIAK projected numbers.
R&F Points: The projected points the player would have in 2005, using the NFL Record & Fact Book projections (estimated print date: sometime in June). 2005 was the first year the NFL Record and Fact Book published such projections.
The NFL Record and Fact Book projected 100 RB for the 2005 season. 13 did not play. To give some idea of the lag time between the print date and the beginning of the 2005 season, the R&F ranked Onterrio Smith, suspended for the year on May 19.
Rookies were preranked very conservatively by the R&F (J.J. Arrington was 49th), but the same did not apply to their projected stats (Arrington was 8th).
R&F Rank: the projected ranking of the player at his position in 2005 under the simplified Yahoo system, using the NFL Record & Fact Book projected numbers.
